Research

Current research and core research interests:

The roles and use of prospective knowledge practices in sustainability transition contexts: a realist evaluation and pragmatist synthesis (PhD research)

Broadly, my doctoral thesis (the expected submission date is July 2017) concerns the production, assessment and use of knowledge claims about the future with respect to sustainability-related socio-technical transitions. The study is an explanatory case study which was conducted in collaboration with CSIRO staff and uses two main research lens: realist evaluation and social knowledge practices research. The focal practices are conceptualised as prospective knowledge practices – for an example see the CSIRO-led Future Grid Forum. The study is relevant to practitioners (e.g. who want to better understand what influences the impacts of these practices) as well as others wanting to understand the micro-politics of transition processes. The findings can also inform a better understanding of the intended instrumental functions of prospective knowledge practices, the tensions that can emerge between instrumental and epistemic goals, and the implications of these tensions (e.g. for the use of such practices).

Beyond this study I also have a number of related research interests and associated peer-reviewed publications which reflect the interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches adopted in my research:

The production and use of anticipatory knowledge

This research draws on my own practitioner experiences (e.g. use of scenario methods and visioning processes in consulting work), earlier studies of ‘strategic foresight’ (link) and in science and technology studies, and also explores the temporal work done by actors in innovation processes (on this theme also see my PhD research). It involves research on key techniques of prospection (e.g. see McGrail 2014, McGrail 2016) and attempts to produce and mobilise claims about the future for various purposes.

Related key publications:

  • McGrail, S. 2010, ‘Nano Dreams and Nightmares: Emerging Technoscience and the Framing and (re)Interpreting of the Future, Present and Past’, Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 14, no. 4, 23-48. (My most cited paper)
  • McGrail, S. 2014, ‘Rethinking the roles of evaluation in learning how to solve ‘wicked’ problems: The case of anticipatory techniques used to support climate change mitigation and adaptation’, Evaluation Journal of Australasia, vol. 14, no. 2, 4-16. (Paper awarded Rosalind Hurworth Prize and subsequently published in the Evaluation Journal of Australasia)
  • McGrail, S. 2012, ”Cracks in the System’: Problematisation of the Future and the Growth of Anticipatory and Interventionist Practices’, Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 16, no. 3 (March), 21-46.
  • McGrail, S. 2016, ‘On being and becoming more of a foresight skeptic’, Compass (publication of the Association of Professional Futurists), January, pp. 17-20. (Pdf of Futures Symposium published in Compass)

Psychosocial aspects of, and barriers to, envisioning the future

This research concerns the ways that expectations, and actors abilities (and inabilities) to effectively envision the future, are influenced by psychological and socio-cultural factors. The research is also informed and influenced by other social scientists such as Karen Cerulo (e.g. see her book Never Saw it Coming), Thomas Suddendorf (see his fascinating book The Gap: The Science of What Separates Us from Other Animals), Andrew Lakoff (link) and Jens Beckert (see Imagined Futures: Fictional Expectations and Capitalist Dynamics).

Related key publications

  • McGrail, S., Gaziulusoy, A.I. & Twomey, P. 2015, ‘Framing Processes in the Envisioning of Low-Carbon, Resilient Cities: Results from Two Visioning Exercises’, Sustainability, vol. 7, no. 7, 8649-83.
  • McGrail, S. 2013, ‘Framing and reframing the emerging ‘planetary crisis’: A plea to avoid, and for increasing critique of, neoenvironmental determinism’, On the Horizon, vol. 21, no. 3, 230-46.
  • McGrail, S. 2013, Australia’s ‘carbon budget black hole’: fact or political fiction?, viewed July 12 2013, http://theconversation.com/australias-carbon-budget-black-hole-fact-or-political-fiction-14281

Environmental movements, philosophy and politics

One of my developing research interests is environmental movements and politics, encompassing trends and issues in modern environmentalism and the contemporary nature of environmental politics. Of particular interest are the ‘prospective turn’ in environmental thought (see blogpost), formation of beliefs about sustainability threats/issues, and associated political movements.

Related key publications:

  • McGrail, S. 2011, ‘Environmentalism in Transition? Emerging Perspectives, Issues and Futures Practices in Contemporary Environmentalism’, Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 15, no. 3, 117-44. (Awarded 2012 Jan Lee Martin Foundation award for this paper)
  • McGrail, S. 2013, ‘Framing and reframing the emerging ‘planetary crisis’: A plea to avoid, and for increasing critique of, neoenvironmental determinism’, On the Horizon, vol. 21, no. 3, 230-46.
  • McGrail, S. 2012, ‘Does ‘conservative environmentalism’ really unite? A review of the book Green Philosophy: How to Think Seriously About the Planet by Roger Scruton’, onlineopinion.com.au, June 20, http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=13760&page=0.
  • McGrail, S. 2010, ‘Is Sustainability the Enemy of Progress or the Key to Creating a Future Worth Having? Three Provocative Perspectives on Sustainability, Climate Change and the Future’, Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 14, no. 3, 31 – 40.

Climate change and society

Finally, over the past 15 years I’ve worked on a number of climate change-related projects and occasionally published papers addressing climate change and society issues and associated practices that are commonly used to promote/enable change (e.g. visioning exercises). I’m also interested in how human-induced climate change is constructed and contested as a public issue.

Related key publications:

  • McGrail, S. 2013, ‘Climate Change and Futures Epistemologies: Tensions, Trends and Possibilities in Climate Discourses Epitomised by Three Prominent Climate Experts’, Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 7, no. 3, 21-40.
  • McGrail, S. 2013, ‘Climate action under an Abbott government’, http://theconversation.com/climate-action-under-an-abbott-government-13953
  • McGrail, S., Gaziulusoy, A.I. & Twomey, P. 2015, ‘Simple in Theory, but not in Practice: A ‘Warts and All’ Reflection on the Use of Visioning Exercises in Urban Contexts’, State of Australian Cities Conference, Gold Coast, Queensland (link).
  • McGrail, S., Gaziulusoy, A.I. & Twomey, P. 2015, ‘Framing Processes in the Envisioning of Low-Carbon, Resilient Cities: Results from Two Visioning Exercises’, Sustainability, vol. 7, no. 7, 8649-83.