2 Comments

  1. Erik Rakhou

    Hi Stephen, I would agree that just ,seeing, the future is not enough. It takes a well articulating ambassador to convince day-day executives, to take decisions in light of the gathered future insights.
    I had the pleasure of speaking to one of former colleagues of mr van der Heijden, who explained that it took some time in a castle in France, cigars, access to global network of breaking minds, data access capabilities of IOC and obviously talent of individuals like Pierre Wack to visualize new mental maps for future.
    Our days not just IOC have access to castles, cigars, data and global networks of great minds. Many more people have those resources. Key bottleneck for using scenario’s remains, how to bring executives and other relevant actors to use them.
    Answer is e.g. art, like in your example. But there are more techniques.

  2. Stephen McGrail

    Hi Erik,
    Thanks for visiting my blog and sharing those thoughts. Increasingly I am seeing the bottleneck that you mention as being a key issue in scenario planning. What additional techniques would you suggest for addressing this issue?
    An emerging practice in scenario-based planning is getting the users of the scenarios to be much more involved in creating them (ideally imagining and building them themselves), which aims to address this issue. The problem is that the scenario thinking of senior managers is often quite limited (e.g. as seen in the many examples of banking industry scenarios just before the Global Financial Crisis), due to problematic ‘mental models’, which suggests roles for expert analysts (like a Pierre Wack). I don’t think we have solved this challenge!

    Regards,
    Stephen

    P.S. I hope one day to have access to a castle in France, cigars, and the rest! Here’s hoping…

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