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  1. Hi Steve,

    Along related lines, if it’s not already on your radar, you might also be interested in having a look at this:

    Pilkey, O. H. & Pilkey-Jarvis, L. (2007), Useless arithmetic: Why environmental scientists can’t predict the future, Columbia University Press, New York.

    The authors also draw on a follow on article form Naomi Oreskes:

    Oreskes, N. (1998), “Evaluation (not validation) of quantitative models”, Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 106 No. 6, pp. 1453-1460.

    I personally find the language of “evaluation” particularly helpful in thinking about this area.


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