On the psychological plausibility of prospective exercises (i.e. foresight/futures exercises etc.)

This post began as a research “memo” (written to myself as an entry in a reflective PhD journal) entitled “on psychological plausibility”. I was prompted to write it by a couple of pieces written by David Roberts on current debates about 100% renewable electricity and the feasibility of such goals (see link, link) and other …

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The knowledge illusion and its effects, good and bad

A new book popularising and discussing cognitive science, The Knowledge Illusion: Why We Never Think Alone, recently got my attention. It focusses on recent research findings that people tend to radically overestimate how much they know and, linked with this, greatly overestimate their knowledge of how things work (e.g. fairly simple things like how modern …

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